As 2009 pops its head over the horizon, there is little to suggest its New Year glow will do anything to remove the financial gloom clouding the moribund western economy. For the event industry, financial worries (stacked up with the continuing importance of CSR and changing availability of certain foods at reasonable prices) will ensure that 2009 is going to be anything but dull. Whether it will be a year for celebration or commiseration though, is up for some debate.

If the words 'credit' and 'crunch' were reverberating any more noisily around the event industry at the moment there would be good grounds for a class action lawsuit against the inventor of the term on the grounds of hearing damage.

It is, of course, natural for there to be concern over parts of the economy failing. If 2009 heralds the doom and gloom many predict, then there is no doubt budgets will be cut in certain areas. Construction and housebuilding have been almost completely stultified, and there is hardly going to be a large New Year's bash at Lehman Brothers come December. Indeed, big parties, extravagant corporate spend and lavish launches could all take a hit; no troubled financial institution or publicly loathed utility firm is going to want to flirt with headlines of 'needless' expenditure as its customers wilt under the heat of the current financial climate.

In fact, this trend for cutbacks is already beginning. Off the record, more than one agency and venue has told this magazine that they are seeing events postponed or pulled altogether because of nothing more than the need to maintain the right image.

But the harbingers of doom may not have it all their own way. Speaking at Event 100 Club Live in the middle of September, many remained remarkably buoyant about the year ahead.

"I actually think more money is going to be spent on event marketing through 2009, particularly in the consumer (FMCG) sector," says Merlin Entertainments Group general manager of events Michael Aldridge. "There are also all sorts of firms that will find themselves with more business, such as accountancy firms, lawyers and professional services firms. They will all provide opportunities."

Aldridge advises agencies, venues and the like to reflect their target clients and increase marketing budgets if they want to take advantage of these opportunities. The 'quiet' ones will find it harder to survive, he argues.

Like many, though, Aldridge stops short of predicting a completely fantastic 2009. It seems inevitable that some smaller outfits, or those that rely too heavily on one or two clients, could find the going tough. "The wheat will be sorted out from the chaff," as Vinopolis MD Rupert Ellwood says.

Smyle founder Rick Stainton adds that agencies need to act quickly if they do find themselves stuck with "more than five to ten per cent of business" coming from a single source. It seems sound advice.

"I think there will generally be less events next year than this," says Stainton. "Venues and caterers will probably notice it most. Christmas events are likely to be cut back and multi-purpose events could become commonplace."

If any given organisation is suffering financially, then consolidation makes sense. Stainton uses the example of motivational and staff conferences being rolled into one, as well as awards events being involved in annual company bashes, rather than remaining standalone.

This consolidation within events is likely to be mirrored by wider consolidation taking place across the industry as a whole. It seems certain that a number of small firms will suffer, and with that will come the opportunity for larger companies to step in to take advantage of talented staff and a reasonable client list.

And when a company is performing well, it may still find itself in line for acquisition. This year has seen the £319m Excel London purchase by Adnec and, last month, field marketing company CPM swoop for TRO. The general feeling is there will be more of the same next year. This will partially be driven by the Olympics, with larger, non-event industry firms looking to gain a foothold within the sector and scoop a piece of the Olympic pie.

Logistically, the credit crunch promises to be a nightmare. And other economic factors are hardly going to assist. "Gas and transportation costs will continue to rise," says Excel London head of sales, corporate Jane Hague. "Organisations will tend to travel shorter distances for events, to save costs."

This cost cutting, Hague says, will be reflected across the sector, with non-residential conferences becoming the norm and hotels having to fight harder to maintain their grip on that part of the market. Those conference venues and hotels will also have to work closely with caterers to deal with rising food prices - watch out for an increasing reliance on local suppliers.

"It will mean more creativity in menu choices," says Hague. "Using local suppliers also has CSR implications."

Any event organiser worth his or her salt will have realised by now that CSR is here to stay. Event industry awards more often than not select their winners based on a variety of categories, including how successfully environmental and CSR elements were implemented. Although many of the industry's leading figures suggest cost considerations and the overall success of an event takes precedence over CSR concerns, all agree that 2009 will see ethicality continuing to retain importance.

Next year, then, is certainly going to be tough, with a variety of pressures ensuring that not everyone gets through unscathed. But with the right focus the industry can be successful, and there are plenty of opportunities waiting to be taken advantage of.

"In the not too distant future there will be an election," TRO chief executive Rob Allen points out. "There are always opportunities around."

Looking further forward, London arguably has better links to South Africa than any other European city, so expect its event expertise to reap plenty of business rewards from the forthcoming 2010 World Cup.

And after that there will be the juggernaut that is the London 2012 Olympics. Event has already revealed online that contracts for the Games will not be in place for at least another six months, but when they start rolling in towards the middle of 2009, the scramble is going to be intense.

So the future looks mixed, but what is guaranteed is that the most lithe and innovative organisations are going to be the most successful. If the UK slips into recession everyone will feel it to some extent, but, as Rob Allen says, the industry as a whole should come through okay. "What we are going to see won't be a complete freeze, but more likely a little nervous chill," he says.

Either way, it's best to wrap up warm.